This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a clear message for Ukraine and its European allies: Moscow can keep going, because we have powerful friends.
The Russian leader stood shoulder to shoulder at various events in China with the men who have enabled him to wage his war on Ukraine for as long and as ferociously as he has: China’s leader Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.
More than three years into what Putin once thought would be a quick takeover of his much smaller and weaker neighbor, Russia would be unable to sustain the fight without Chinese and Indian money, Iranian weapons and, to a lesser extent, manpower from North Korea.
But the messaging from both the summit and military parade hosted by China this week went well beyond the war in Ukraine.
The leaders who gathered in China may not agree on everything. Some of them may not even like each other very much. But they are seeing the opportunity of a lifetime to end Western dominance of the global stage. And Europe fears it could be in the firing line.
The events provided a stark visual reminder of why Europe must rethink its security. It has spent recent years trying to isolate Russia’s leader and starve its economy, while also coming to terms with the fact that the United States may no longer be the ally it can always turn to.
Yet there was Putin, standing together with some of the world’s most powerful men, reaffirming their friendships.
“Russia is trying to demonstrate that even though it has been isolated from the Western world, it still has partners and allies which are economically strong countries… And this isolation doesn‘t mean that the Russian economy will crumble or that Russia will be unable to sustain its war effort,” Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told CNN.
The international order that was set after the end of the Cold War is clearly at risk of unraveling.
The US has been retreating from the global stage under President Donald Trump and his “America First” agenda. Meanwhile, Europe is battling its own demons, including a surge in far-right nationalism and economic pressures.
Russia, China, India and other countries that did not like the idea of a US-dominated world suddenly saw an opening.
“The established dominance of the Western alliance in international affairs is receding, and they see the opportunity to start to, in a serious way, re-engineer the international system,” John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank, told CNN.
This week has laid these ambitions bare for everyone, including Trump, to see.
Trump did get the message. “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America,” he wrote in a message to Xi.
Despite all the recent hand holding and smiles, China’s and India’s approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine is dominated by pragmatism, analysts say.
The two consistently profess their neutrality on the war – while at the same time fueling it by providing financial lifelines to Russia.
China and India were more than happy to step in when Ukraine’s Western allies slapped sanctions on Russian oil, a key moneymaker for Moscow.
They get cheaper energy supplies as a result, but experts say the relationship is not just about the money.
While neither China nor India is willing to enter into a direct confrontation with the West, both are happy to see Russia pushing an anti-Western agenda.
“China is much closer to Russia when it comes to multipolarity and decreasing the Western influence in general. There is an ideological affinity and there is a pure economic interest as well,” Seskuria said.
Lough said Russia’s push against the US-dominated world order also plays well into the Indian narrative. “I think the Indians are not unhappy to see Russia pushing this agenda of fighting the corner of the Global South and ensuring that the system of global governance is adapted to accommodate the rising economies with large populations,” he told CNN.
Beijing and Delhi are now the world’s two largest buyers of Russian oil and coal, with China also being the second-biggest buyer of Russia’s gas and oil products.
The support goes beyond just oil. According to the US Treasury, both Chinese and Indian companies have been supplying Russia with so-called dual-use technologies, or components that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, such as chips or telecommunication equipment that Russia cannot get elsewhere because of Western sanctions.
“You only have to look at the number of Chinese components in the Russian drones that are landing in Ukraine to see that China is really a very important supplier,” Lough added.
Meanwhile, Ukraine and its European allies are not willing to dismiss India and China completely, because they are aware that, if anyone can put real pressure on Putin to end the war – in the absence of tougher action from Trump – it is likely Beijing and, perhaps to a lesser extent, New Delhi.
North Korea and Iran, meanwhile, have stood firmly on Russia’s side. Already sanctioned and isolated by the West over their nuclear programs and other activities, they have little to lose.
Iran was particularly helpful to Moscow in the early months of the war, providing it with know-how on lessening the pain of sanctions, Lough said.
Crucially, Iran also provided much-needed military hardware, including the one weapon that has significantly altered the way Moscow fights in Ukraine – the Shahed drone.
The two countries even signed a new partnership agreement and launched joint military drills.
Yet Tehran has learned the hard way that any alliance with Russia has clear limits.
Putin did not come to Iran’s assistance when it came under attack from Israel and, later, the US this summer. And beyond providing a safe way out for former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, formerly a key ally for both Russia and Iran, Putin did not intervene when Assad’s regime was overthrown in December.
For North Korea, isolated and impoverished, the relationship with Russia remains purely transactional, Seskuria said. Russia needs men, and North Korea is possibly the only country that can afford in a political sense to send its own people to fight in a war that has been marked by an enormously high casualty rate on the Russian side.
“They don’t have much to lose, in a sense that there is no public opinion or any resistance that can go against the decision of Kim to send troops to Ukraine,” Seskuria said.
The warm welcome Putin received in China, coupled with the military and diplomatic might on display during the summit and the military parade, was designed to convey a message.
“Here we have this symbol of a group of countries that are not best friends as such, but have common strategic interests and that are able to align and they’re able to show to the US and its allies that they are a force to be reckoned with,” Lough said.
“This is unsettling, to say the least, and some would say disturbing, but you then have to ask how sustainable is this?” he said.
The shifts the events in China represented did not happen overnight. Europe might have been caught off guard when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but it has changed since then.
“We are starting to see now what the Europeans are made of and in terms of defense developments in Europe, we can see some remarkable changes,” Lough said.
Things that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago – such as Germany changing its constitution to boost defense spending or the staunchly neutral Sweden and Finland joining NATO – are now happening because of the geopolitical shifts that were on display this week.
As much as Putin’s chumminess with Xi and Modi might have sparked some discomfort in many European capitals, the group was brought together by a combination of need, economic pragmatism and opportunity, analysts say.
“It’s a very functional relationship, that is not based on a strong mutual affection. It’s an alliance of interests rather than an alliance of countries,” Lough said, adding that interests can shift, and a lot of things can happen in the next three and half years of the Trump presidency.
“We are not at the stage where it’s kind of suddenly game over, because a bunch of leaders we don’t like have got together in China for a big celebration,” he said.
